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October 2026: Plundering and Raiding

The detailed notes for the October 2026 rebalance of plundering and raiding: every rule that changed, the rule it replaced, and the numbers as they stood then. For how plunder, raids and Honour work today, see the Plunder, Raiding and Honour pages.

At a glance

RuleBeforeAfter
How a patrol stops a plunder runLowered the getaway odds; a big escort could shrug it offTurns the run back by Crew Grit alone; escort size does not count
A caught plunder crewEach ship rolled a 25% chance to be lostLoses 25% of each kind of ship, rounded, at least one ship
A patrol whose crew is spentStayed on station until recalledStands down and sails home by itself
A won attack on an island with no troopsCost the attacker nothingPays the sea toll a raid on a wild shore pays
Who counts as a newcomer for HonourAnyone who joined in the last 14 daysAnyone carrying the Matron’s seal

Patrols turn plunder runs back

Before the getaway roll, a standing patrol rolls to turn the run back. The chance depends on the crew’s Crew Grit alone, read when the plunderers arrive. The size of the patrol and the size of the escort do not enter it.

Crew GritPlunder runs turned back
50% or moreEvery run
25% to below 50%50%
Above 0% to below 25%25%
0%None; the patrol stands down and sails home

A turned-back run sails home whole: nothing lost, nothing taken. Both sides get a report that names no one, and the island’s owner also learns when a run slipped past a tired crew. A run that slips past still makes the normal getaway roll: at 60% getaway odds against a crew between 25% and 50% grit, a run succeeds 50% × 60% = 30% of the time. The plunder screen shows nothing about the island’s patrol; look at the island to know whether one stands there.

What was the old patrol rule?formula and example

The patrol never turned a run back. It multiplied the getaway odds by max(0.15, 1 − 0.85 × P / (P + E) × grit), where P is the patrol’s strength and E the plunderer’s escort strength. At 60% getaway odds against a fresh 10-ship patrol, a run with no escort got away 9% of the time, and 34.5% with 10 warships along. Under the new rule the same fresh patrol stops both runs.

How long a crew stays sharp

Crew Grit falls in a straight line from 100% to 0 over the watch. Without endurance research the watch lasts 168 hours for a Governor with no prestige, falling to 60 hours at maximum prestige. A crew turns back every run while it holds 50% grit or more: about 84 hours with no prestige, 30 at maximum prestige. Patrol-endurance research lengthens all of these. At 0 grit the patrol stands down and its ships sail home; no report is sent.

Master Quill
Master Quill: Relieve the watch early
Grit is read when the plunderers land, not when they sail. Raise a fresh watch a little before the halfway mark, or a run sent while your crew was sharp arrives to find it tired.

A caught crew loses a fixed share

A plunder crew the watch catches loses 25% of each kind of ship, rounded to the nearest whole ship with halves rounded up, and always at least one ship in total. Raid-loss modifiers still apply. Without them, 10 small warships lose 3, 4 lose 1, and one small and one large warship lose 1 between them. Colonisation ships are never taken. Before, each ship rolled its own 25% chance, so a two-ship crew came home with both ships 56% of the time.

The caught report keeps the odds you sailed on, says if they moved while you were at sea and why, and names what gave you away: the watch tower, the hounds, your choice of haul, or nothing, which is bad luck.

Patrols against the Black Tide

Against the Black Tide only, a Governor’s patrol fights as if it had 5 more small warships; the crew’s grit then scales the whole. A fresh 5-ship patrol fights like 10, and a fresh patrol filled to its harbour’s limit (one small warship per harbour level, up to 20) holds off a Tide raid. The Tide’s idol plunderers sail with 5 warships instead of 30, and go first for the islands whose patrol crews are most tired.

The sea toll on an empty island

A won attack on a Governor’s island where no troops stood, neither the owner’s nor an ally’s, pays the toll a raid on a wild shore pays. Every unit coming home rolls once against the sea. On an average island the chance is 1.0% plus 0.18% for every ship sent, up to 14%, reached at 73 ships. The loot is unchanged.

Ships sent (average island)Chance per unitLost on average
102.8%0.3
255.5%1.4
5010.0%5.0
10014.0%14.0
50014.0%70.0

No toll is paid when any troops stood on the island (it is a real battle), when a punch-down already cost units to the matchup toll, when the island’s patrol held the fleet at sea, in a fight with the Black Tide, on a colonisation, or on a lost attack. Sinking the patrol does not spare the fleet: only a patrol that holds it at sea does. If the sea takes every unit, the attack is not won and nothing is taken.

How is the chance worked out?5 island tiers

chance = min(14%, (island base + 0.18% × ships sent) × storm) × (1 − newcomer easing). Ships sent counts every ship, merchants and spy ships included; troops and catapults do not raise the chance, but they roll. A fleet from an island under Rough Seas multiplies the chance by 1.5 before the cap. An attacker still under the Matron’s help pays 25%, 50%, 75% or 100% less by help level.

Island tierIsland base
Barren0.6%
Poor0.8%
Average1.0%
Abundant1.1%
Rich1.3%

Honour: who counts as a newcomer

Striking a newcomer costs more: punch-downs and repeat strikes cost 50% more Infamy, and against a newcomer an advantage of 10:1 or more is an extreme punch-down, at least 15 Infamy. Those numbers did not change. A newcomer used to be anyone who joined in the last 14 days. Now it is anyone carrying the Matron’s seal after their name: still in Sanctuary, or still under the Matron’s help. That help runs out sooner the more a newcomer grows and with each attack they make on another Governor, and nobody keeps it past day 14. See The Matron’s Favour.

Common questions

Does a bigger patrol turn back more plunder runs?

No. Only Crew Grit decides it. More ships still help against the Black Tide and in a fight at sea.

Can a bigger escort get a plunder run past a fresh patrol?

No. While the crew holds 50% grit or more it turns back every run. Wait for it to tire.

Are these numbers still current?

They are the numbers as of October 2026. The Plunder, Raiding and Honour pages always show the rules as they stand now.